* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 63 70 74 83 88 81 70 68 66 65 66 69 71 72 72 V (KT) LAND 50 56 55 44 37 43 48 41 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 45 37 42 51 54 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 10 7 9 14 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -3 0 -4 2 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 264 282 327 4 359 359 360 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.9 29.8 30.5 29.9 30.2 30.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 168 166 172 168 172 172 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 156 161 158 171 158 163 162 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 11 10 8 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 66 67 69 71 76 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 19 19 18 19 21 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 39 31 19 19 24 36 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 71 55 35 33 42 55 41 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 -1 -4 -2 -2 -7 -18 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 245 122 -1 -116 -96 139 252 76 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.4 87.5 88.6 89.6 91.8 94.0 96.3 98.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 72 84 54 11 6 31 47 45 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. -4. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 24. 33. 38. 31. 20. 18. 16. 15. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.1 85.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 11.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.80 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.82 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.2% 52.3% 38.3% 25.1% 21.6% 44.7% 46.9% 32.3% Logistic: 24.8% 61.7% 44.9% 35.4% 22.9% 41.9% 58.6% 52.4% Bayesian: 15.9% 64.1% 25.3% 10.0% 9.6% 51.8% 6.7% 49.2% Consensus: 21.3% 59.4% 36.2% 23.5% 18.0% 46.1% 37.4% 44.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 55 44 37 43 48 41 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 48 37 30 36 41 34 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 50 47 46 35 28 34 39 32 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 33 39 44 37 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT