* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/31/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 37 33 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 37 33 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 43 39 35 28 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 9 8 10 10 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 10 359 7 8 337 296 262 234 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.6 23.4 23.1 22.4 21.7 21.5 21.6 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 99 97 94 87 79 75 76 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 50 48 41 34 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 -5 -16 -24 -29 -14 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 0 5 18 9 0 2 7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -7 -3 -1 1 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1448 1423 1412 1413 1378 1314 1327 1352 1346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.3 22.4 23.6 24.7 26.5 27.6 28.3 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.1 127.7 128.3 128.9 130.3 131.6 132.5 133.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 12 10 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -24. -28. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -24. -28. -33. -41. -45. -49. -54. -59. -65. -70. -75. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.1 126.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/31/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##