* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRWIN EP102017 07/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 53 55 57 57 54 49 47 46 45 44 43 43 44 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 53 55 57 57 54 49 47 46 45 44 43 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 51 52 52 53 54 54 50 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 20 18 19 12 11 16 13 13 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 63 68 70 71 72 74 78 46 189 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.7 24.9 24.1 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 137 136 136 137 135 131 113 105 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 62 63 67 68 67 60 52 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 85 87 85 97 97 91 89 69 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 39 47 50 60 35 27 21 0 -5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 4 5 3 -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1653 1669 1684 1693 1700 1678 1609 1500 1447 1487 1519 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.3 16.4 18.1 20.0 22.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.2 124.4 124.6 124.7 124.8 124.8 124.9 125.2 126.4 128.3 130.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 1 1 1 4 7 10 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 11 12 10 8 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.0 124.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.54 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.32 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.47 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.82 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 20.5% 17.4% 13.9% 10.0% 19.3% 14.5% 10.5% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.4% 5.9% 4.7% 3.4% 6.5% 4.9% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 IRWIN 07/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##