* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 25 27 32 38 27 8 14 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -2 -6 11 7 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 287 283 278 278 295 283 272 176 215 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.5 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 113 113 113 112 117 115 118 122 126 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 37 34 32 30 27 27 30 34 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 1 0 6 18 22 26 24 30 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -18 3 17 -13 22 -21 -29 -12 -1 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 0 2 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1656 1571 1487 1402 1317 1141 979 838 716 600 520 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.4 18.1 17.6 17.1 16.6 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.2 140.0 140.7 141.5 142.3 144.0 145.6 147.1 148.5 150.0 151.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -22. -27. -29. -29. -30. -31. -32. -33. -35. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 139.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##