* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102017 07/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 45 51 55 58 61 64 67 69 70 69 69 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 45 51 55 58 61 64 67 69 70 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 33 34 36 38 41 44 46 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 10 5 4 7 6 12 8 10 11 11 7 13 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 1 -2 -4 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 331 339 354 4 360 343 117 157 135 112 100 82 55 55 60 59 74 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 143 142 141 141 144 146 141 138 139 140 137 141 138 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 68 70 68 68 67 66 64 63 64 62 57 63 66 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 17 18 17 18 18 19 20 21 22 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -48 -56 -50 -48 -55 -39 -28 -16 -1 13 21 38 59 34 34 43 200 MB DIV -4 15 36 41 35 17 25 -18 2 -5 0 -4 26 21 46 37 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 4 3 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1020 1047 1077 1102 1130 1194 1270 1360 1446 1549 1665 1770 1893 1975 1894 1723 1616 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.7 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.7 116.2 117.2 118.3 119.4 120.6 121.9 123.2 124.4 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 8 1 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 17 19 21 23 19 19 21 14 14 17 19 13 19 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 113.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102017 TEN 07/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.45 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.15 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.79 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.3% 11.5% 8.9% 0.0% 14.5% 13.2% 13.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 4.2% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 5.2% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% 5.3% 5.8% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102017 TEN 07/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##