* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082017 07/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 24 28 30 31 32 32 32 33 34 36 37 40 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 24 28 30 31 32 32 32 33 34 36 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 14 17 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 176 159 159 145 136 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 135 135 138 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 70 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 19 28 38 51 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -20 -24 -10 3 15 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1669 1719 1769 1816 1863 1933 1989 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.4 11.9 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.2 123.6 123.9 124.2 124.6 124.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 22 27 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 122.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 0.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.30 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.81 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.22 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.4% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.7% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 3.0% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082017 EIGHT 07/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##