* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 58 64 71 73 72 67 63 59 58 56 52 51 50 47 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 58 64 71 73 72 67 63 59 58 56 52 51 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 55 62 65 65 62 58 56 56 55 52 49 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 7 4 10 9 8 4 3 5 6 3 3 7 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -6 -4 0 0 -2 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 94 87 97 122 164 195 212 201 219 341 359 19 351 295 237 235 248 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.0 26.2 26.0 25.5 25.4 24.9 24.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 143 144 142 142 138 132 123 125 123 117 116 111 108 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 75 72 68 66 60 56 54 50 47 46 46 41 36 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 18 20 21 20 20 19 20 19 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 25 33 39 45 38 54 71 71 76 70 67 57 51 26 22 1 13 200 MB DIV 50 31 29 26 36 32 35 54 24 25 -8 16 -6 -12 -5 2 5 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 4 1 1 0 -4 -1 2 5 9 7 2 1 LAND (KM) 1116 1149 1189 1248 1314 1415 1568 1747 1915 2074 2213 2227 2032 2060 1794 1696 1507 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.1 117.0 118.1 119.1 121.2 123.5 125.8 128.1 130.3 132.2 134.0 135.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 6 8 8 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 25 23 21 13 10 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 6. 4. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 24. 31. 33. 32. 27. 23. 19. 18. 16. 12. 11. 10. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.1 115.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.70 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.91 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 45.7% 27.8% 18.7% 14.0% 25.6% 27.1% 19.6% Logistic: 37.4% 75.0% 48.3% 41.3% 35.4% 43.7% 11.6% 4.2% Bayesian: 4.8% 55.0% 20.8% 9.3% 11.2% 16.6% 3.6% 0.0% Consensus: 19.3% 58.6% 32.3% 23.1% 20.2% 28.6% 14.1% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##