* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 54 50 45 37 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 54 50 45 37 30 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 60 54 49 45 38 32 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 20 21 20 27 25 33 33 35 32 31 28 26 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 4 4 6 5 3 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 238 238 236 229 231 217 215 205 214 219 228 232 256 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.2 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.5 25.5 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.6 27.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 113 112 113 112 113 118 118 123 124 128 131 138 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 -56.0 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.5 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 57 56 51 47 42 38 37 37 37 39 41 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 82 63 59 53 37 30 29 14 5 -10 -16 -31 -41 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 9 7 4 -4 15 8 2 1 12 28 -8 21 -3 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 10 8 4 5 5 7 7 5 13 12 8 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1900 1817 1735 1643 1551 1380 1213 1042 867 685 505 337 251 198 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.5 23.0 23.5 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.8 137.6 138.3 139.2 140.0 141.6 143.2 144.9 146.7 148.7 151.1 153.8 156.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 13 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 12 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. -29. -30. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -16. -18. -19. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -15. -20. -28. -35. -40. -46. -51. -57. -61. -62. -64. -66. -68. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.0 136.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.02 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##