* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 51 54 66 68 68 67 64 61 59 58 56 57 56 56 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 51 54 66 68 68 67 64 61 59 58 56 57 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 45 48 54 58 59 57 54 52 52 52 50 48 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 7 7 5 8 7 13 11 3 6 8 10 4 1 6 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 1 0 1 5 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 3 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 341 141 146 162 159 165 208 216 217 270 336 335 342 340 350 143 194 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.9 27.0 26.1 25.8 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 146 145 148 146 142 138 135 131 129 134 134 124 122 128 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 77 77 75 75 74 67 61 56 51 47 43 45 39 39 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 20 19 24 22 23 24 24 23 23 23 21 21 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 16 28 34 55 61 82 103 106 107 83 76 78 67 67 71 200 MB DIV 5 9 21 21 37 56 25 67 23 37 -27 -13 -9 6 -15 7 7 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -1 0 1 6 2 -2 -4 -4 0 4 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 918 988 1014 1032 1061 1160 1285 1437 1652 1876 2105 2335 2141 1902 1754 1443 1260 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.4 15.9 15.4 15.0 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.6 112.6 113.5 114.5 115.5 117.8 120.3 122.8 125.4 127.9 130.4 132.9 135.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 9 11 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 19 13 14 20 28 10 6 7 2 1 4 5 0 0 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 5. 5. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 26. 28. 29. 27. 24. 21. 19. 18. 16. 17. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.1 111.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.74 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.70 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 21.9% 18.0% 14.5% 10.8% 20.8% 16.9% 15.3% Logistic: 7.1% 25.9% 11.8% 6.3% 2.6% 3.8% 1.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 8.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 18.6% 10.1% 7.0% 4.5% 9.0% 6.4% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##