* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 58 62 68 71 65 60 51 45 39 36 37 39 41 43 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 58 62 68 71 65 60 51 45 39 36 37 39 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 58 63 66 63 55 46 38 33 31 29 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 1 6 8 12 20 23 19 15 12 9 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -3 -1 -1 2 3 -2 -3 -3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 295 307 175 160 202 169 196 199 215 219 233 226 211 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.7 26.6 25.9 26.2 25.6 25.9 26.4 27.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 143 144 141 142 131 123 126 119 122 129 140 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 74 74 75 73 68 58 54 47 43 39 38 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 14 15 17 15 16 14 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 0 1 6 10 29 43 57 64 71 60 75 61 48 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 28 15 6 8 30 42 27 28 3 5 -10 -13 -2 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 2 8 19 7 5 -2 8 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 723 789 863 910 930 1009 1140 1274 1457 1644 1842 2039 2233 2118 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.4 17.1 16.6 16.2 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.6 111.6 112.7 113.7 116.0 118.6 121.3 123.9 126.4 128.7 130.7 132.7 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 10 13 18 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 15 11 10 13 16 1 0 1 0 0 1 8 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 6. 3. 1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 23. 26. 20. 15. 6. -0. -6. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 109.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.67 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 38.4% 25.5% 18.8% 13.7% 25.3% 27.3% 12.7% Logistic: 23.5% 49.6% 31.6% 22.4% 12.3% 15.6% 6.1% 2.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 37.0% 6.2% 2.4% 6.2% 12.8% 4.9% 0.0% Consensus: 14.0% 41.7% 21.1% 14.5% 10.7% 17.9% 12.8% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##