* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 44 47 53 55 56 52 48 45 43 42 44 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 44 47 53 55 56 52 48 45 43 42 44 46 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 44 46 46 44 40 36 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 9 6 2 6 12 19 18 18 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 3 2 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 319 309 307 310 309 149 212 206 214 208 222 225 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 26.4 26.2 26.8 26.1 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 150 147 144 143 140 139 128 126 132 125 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 71 74 73 73 74 71 64 60 53 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -6 -4 -1 18 29 33 25 34 21 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 7 11 15 22 18 36 35 5 -2 -13 -6 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 3 0 3 5 10 8 -2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 647 696 754 826 897 938 1031 1151 1305 1507 1693 1873 2063 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.4 110.3 111.3 112.2 114.3 116.7 119.2 121.7 124.1 126.4 128.6 130.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 21 19 16 12 11 11 9 1 0 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. 23. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 18. 20. 21. 17. 13. 10. 8. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.51 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 26.3% 19.9% 15.8% 11.3% 22.2% 18.3% 14.3% Logistic: 23.4% 47.4% 27.6% 17.5% 10.7% 24.7% 14.6% 7.4% Bayesian: 1.6% 40.4% 5.2% 2.0% 0.4% 11.5% 5.4% 0.1% Consensus: 12.9% 38.0% 17.6% 11.8% 7.5% 19.5% 12.8% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##