* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 44 49 52 56 56 53 50 48 45 44 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 44 49 52 56 56 53 50 48 45 44 43 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 44 46 47 46 43 39 34 30 28 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 3 3 9 16 15 15 12 13 13 16 22 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 -3 -3 0 -3 0 1 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 317 302 285 310 302 252 215 200 209 220 219 223 229 261 269 280 290 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.0 27.4 26.6 26.0 26.4 26.0 25.8 26.8 25.5 25.9 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 150 147 141 135 139 130 124 128 124 123 132 118 123 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 72 69 70 71 70 72 71 67 62 59 54 49 43 41 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 10 9 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 -3 1 -2 0 10 25 34 32 31 39 49 31 11 7 9 200 MB DIV 7 13 8 21 5 2 42 49 16 6 10 6 -4 -3 -8 -17 -21 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 1 0 2 6 7 13 1 7 3 3 2 4 0 LAND (KM) 584 625 675 743 814 864 950 1083 1229 1413 1618 1819 2032 2274 2145 1892 1655 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.2 17.3 17.2 16.9 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.7 109.6 110.6 111.5 113.6 115.9 118.4 120.9 123.3 125.8 128.2 130.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 10 12 12 11 12 11 12 14 10 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 19 17 13 8 4 10 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 17. 21. 21. 18. 15. 13. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 107.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.63 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.57 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 22.4% 18.4% 15.0% 10.7% 21.0% 16.9% 14.8% Logistic: 7.7% 21.0% 12.3% 5.6% 3.9% 6.3% 8.6% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 21.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 4.1% 4.6% 0.2% Consensus: 6.9% 21.5% 10.8% 7.0% 4.9% 10.5% 10.0% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##