* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072017 07/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 30 31 36 40 46 51 52 50 49 48 47 47 48 48 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 30 31 36 40 46 51 52 50 49 48 47 47 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 35 36 35 32 30 29 28 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 10 10 10 6 3 4 8 13 11 9 8 8 8 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 -1 -1 -5 1 0 -3 -1 -3 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 332 321 307 300 312 303 258 199 170 219 199 216 194 210 218 216 224 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.3 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.0 27.1 25.7 25.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 152 149 143 141 142 138 128 128 130 125 134 119 115 119 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 74 72 71 71 71 71 71 70 64 61 57 52 45 46 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 12 11 12 12 13 14 15 13 13 12 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -9 0 0 3 4 15 23 39 37 46 36 52 57 24 20 26 200 MB DIV 31 22 26 20 32 19 37 54 39 16 19 8 6 -1 -8 -13 -27 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 0 -1 2 -1 4 5 8 7 5 6 3 8 3 3 LAND (KM) 586 616 656 710 773 870 932 1059 1192 1359 1565 1760 1951 2329 2220 2071 1852 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.1 108.9 109.8 110.7 112.7 114.9 117.3 119.7 122.2 124.7 127.2 129.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 14 8 8 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 21 19 17 9 9 14 8 1 1 2 0 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 1. 6. 10. 16. 22. 22. 20. 19. 18. 17. 17. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 107.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 SEVEN 07/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.89 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.53 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.81 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.06 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 13.5% 12.5% 10.3% 0.0% 15.3% 13.3% 14.1% Logistic: 0.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.6% 4.5% 3.6% 0.1% 5.4% 4.6% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 SEVEN 07/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##