* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 117 114 112 104 90 81 74 65 58 51 45 41 36 32 28 V (KT) LAND 115 116 117 114 112 104 90 81 74 65 58 51 45 41 36 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 112 108 104 93 81 70 60 52 45 38 31 25 20 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 0 3 5 4 2 10 8 9 12 18 22 32 27 33 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 1 7 4 6 3 8 12 16 8 3 6 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 89 224 233 181 191 211 277 290 272 279 273 257 267 263 252 260 265 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.1 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.9 25.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 142 139 131 122 122 117 113 118 118 118 122 121 129 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -54.3 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 62 60 59 59 58 57 53 49 48 51 50 49 43 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 26 27 28 25 25 24 22 21 20 18 16 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 6 17 19 21 27 35 32 40 43 44 37 36 27 20 17 15 10 200 MB DIV 86 97 96 47 45 83 41 69 34 -4 -12 -2 -14 5 -13 -12 -14 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 1 6 10 7 1 9 7 11 0 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 2080 2137 2200 2242 2284 2356 2220 2065 1894 1718 1547 1366 1198 1029 712 658 382 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.9 128.0 129.1 130.1 131.1 132.8 134.3 135.6 137.1 138.7 140.3 142.0 143.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 11 9 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 16 13 11 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -30. -38. -45. -51. -55. -57. -60. -62. -65. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. -0. -3. -11. -25. -34. -41. -50. -57. -64. -70. -74. -79. -83. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 12.2 126.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.03 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.60 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.1 to 8.6 0.76 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 554.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.23 -1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 22.0% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 4.7% 3.9% 2.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.5% 9.4% 7.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##