* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 61 69 78 90 95 95 89 78 66 51 38 24 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 52 61 69 78 90 95 95 89 78 66 51 38 24 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 66 73 87 97 98 88 72 55 40 30 23 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 6 4 6 7 13 18 26 30 37 34 48 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 6 9 8 0 1 -9 -9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 343 27 63 132 248 238 224 223 235 231 255 268 287 285 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.2 28.5 27.9 26.6 25.5 24.3 24.1 23.5 23.2 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 165 161 157 154 147 150 143 129 117 104 102 96 92 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.7 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 66 64 64 64 63 62 59 57 53 43 32 27 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 14 17 20 20 19 16 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -20 -24 -24 -18 -13 -20 -23 -30 -56 -12 -30 -32 -54 -51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 95 92 99 95 55 50 67 99 99 39 -8 -24 -18 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 2 9 9 6 14 5 5 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 566 609 655 720 798 844 915 988 998 991 919 814 692 565 433 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.7 20.1 21.5 22.6 23.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.8 109.0 110.2 111.4 113.8 116.0 117.9 119.4 120.5 120.9 120.7 120.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 40 22 18 20 16 23 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 15. 14. 13. 10. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -7. -10. -16. -21. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 13. 11. 8. 2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 24. 33. 45. 50. 51. 44. 33. 21. 6. -7. -21. -33. -38. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.2 106.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 21.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 15.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.73 14.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.58 10.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -15.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 10.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 11.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.29 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 6.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 79% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 76% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.6% 76.2% 74.2% 67.3% 45.2% 78.7% 76.0% 53.7% Logistic: 52.2% 72.9% 72.0% 62.6% 38.4% 76.9% 58.6% 18.4% Bayesian: 42.7% 82.9% 81.9% 67.9% 17.9% 49.4% 34.5% 2.5% Consensus: 44.2% 77.3% 76.0% 65.9% 33.8% 68.4% 56.4% 24.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##