* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/07/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 84 78 74 64 61 55 53 52 52 53 59 62 66 67 64 V (KT) LAND 90 89 84 78 74 64 61 55 53 52 52 53 59 62 66 67 64 V (KT) LGEM 90 92 90 86 82 76 70 61 53 48 43 41 44 50 58 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 32 31 28 29 43 41 43 36 39 23 12 14 21 34 54 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -9 -2 2 4 2 1 3 6 6 5 2 0 2 6 6 8 SHEAR DIR 341 347 346 348 343 348 358 11 9 16 4 342 261 248 241 255 255 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.2 27.3 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 137 138 146 149 153 150 146 141 143 145 138 128 125 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 111 114 115 122 124 127 127 123 119 121 121 117 110 108 102 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 46 44 42 46 49 54 54 62 68 67 65 64 51 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 16 18 19 24 22 23 24 24 24 26 28 31 36 41 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -56 -41 -30 -13 10 17 25 83 142 175 121 99 68 89 129 121 200 MB DIV -27 -34 -14 8 -28 6 7 -2 14 24 21 32 50 79 67 62 17 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 -6 -1 -6 9 13 13 6 0 5 10 16 19 1 LAND (KM) 980 985 990 973 957 909 875 860 869 886 937 1032 998 929 941 978 888 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.7 28.7 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.2 65.2 65.1 65.1 64.8 64.8 65.2 65.7 66.4 67.0 67.4 67.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 0 1 2 2 2 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 8 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 21 21 23 30 33 35 34 36 35 30 32 21 8 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. -32. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -12. -15. -23. -28. -30. -29. -29. -26. -22. -17. -14. -13. -17. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -12. -16. -26. -29. -35. -37. -38. -38. -37. -31. -28. -24. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 27.4 65.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 716.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 5.3% 4.3% 3.3% 1.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/07/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 5( 24) 0( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 84 78 74 64 61 55 53 52 52 53 59 62 66 67 64 18HR AGO 90 89 84 78 74 64 61 55 53 52 52 53 59 62 66 67 64 12HR AGO 90 87 86 80 76 66 63 57 55 54 54 55 61 64 68 69 66 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 66 63 57 55 54 54 55 61 64 68 69 66 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 58 52 50 49 49 50 56 59 63 64 61 IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 66 63 57 55 54 54 55 61 64 68 69 66 IN 12HR 90 89 84 75 69 65 62 56 54 53 53 54 60 63 67 68 65