* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 52 52 53 52 52 46 40 36 37 36 36 35 33 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 52 52 53 52 52 46 40 36 37 36 36 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 52 51 50 50 47 41 34 29 27 27 28 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 26 26 24 31 31 44 42 49 39 30 19 18 33 46 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -7 -3 -4 0 -5 0 -2 -6 -2 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 355 354 359 359 360 347 338 340 352 11 24 18 14 306 278 281 275 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.5 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 140 134 131 136 140 140 141 140 138 140 139 128 126 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 129 120 113 108 114 117 115 117 118 116 117 116 107 105 103 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 56 58 58 55 50 49 50 50 53 62 57 57 58 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 12 14 15 18 17 15 14 14 14 15 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR -94 -88 -100 -107 -91 -37 -14 -10 -1 -20 -32 -29 -19 -25 -15 -42 -10 200 MB DIV -26 -15 -6 -6 -3 -11 35 -26 4 -52 -12 -24 4 -2 23 69 80 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 0 1 1 1 -1 0 -6 -6 -10 -1 4 8 15 29 LAND (KM) 778 828 884 933 984 1039 1039 998 984 989 1049 1142 1246 1336 1389 1410 1393 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.7 28.6 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.2 63.8 64.3 64.6 64.9 64.8 64.2 63.6 63.3 63.5 63.7 63.9 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 4 2 3 3 0 2 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 41 32 24 18 15 17 22 26 24 19 16 18 20 13 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -24. -29. -31. -31. -31. -32. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. -4. -10. -14. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.0 63.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.32 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.47 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.08 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.3% 9.2% 8.1% 6.9% 9.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 11.3% 6.9% 5.4% 4.0% 7.6% 4.8% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 9.0% 5.5% 4.5% 3.6% 5.6% 4.2% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/05/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 53 52 52 53 52 52 46 40 36 37 36 36 35 33 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 49 49 50 49 49 43 37 33 34 33 33 32 30 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 45 45 46 45 45 39 33 29 30 29 29 28 26 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 39 40 39 39 33 27 23 24 23 23 22 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT