* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MATTHEW AL142016 10/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 118 114 114 114 115 115 115 111 114 112 120 119 117 115 110 103 V (KT) LAND 125 118 114 114 114 115 115 115 94 97 95 103 102 100 98 93 86 V (KT) LGEM 125 117 112 108 108 110 116 121 101 106 108 108 106 102 93 82 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 10 5 1 3 4 11 9 8 11 11 16 16 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 2 3 5 2 6 8 10 6 3 -1 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 281 274 267 282 312 233 353 327 351 315 324 287 282 251 240 268 274 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.7 30.2 30.2 30.0 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.6 28.6 28.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 153 155 163 171 171 169 171 168 170 167 161 145 139 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 143 146 148 154 164 162 156 156 149 149 146 139 123 116 119 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.2 -49.9 -49.5 -49.5 -49.1 -49.2 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 76 75 75 75 73 71 70 71 74 74 71 69 67 66 65 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 24 25 27 29 30 28 31 31 37 39 41 44 45 44 850 MB ENV VOR 100 101 95 93 99 102 103 116 113 121 117 112 97 87 80 62 95 200 MB DIV 90 83 86 113 115 89 124 102 110 64 81 75 65 63 91 68 69 700-850 TADV 6 7 9 6 9 8 7 10 13 12 14 12 17 28 13 35 23 LAND (KM) 187 237 287 345 368 222 98 56 21 192 327 396 373 420 434 318 199 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.8 16.1 17.6 19.3 21.0 22.8 24.3 25.6 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.3 73.6 74.0 74.3 74.7 75.1 75.3 75.3 75.4 75.7 75.9 76.2 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 33 38 45 64 78 90 98 84 63 64 61 64 33 23 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -12. -20. -26. -32. -37. -39. -42. -46. -50. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -9. -9. -6. -1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 1. 5. 3. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. -14. -11. -13. -5. -6. -8. -10. -15. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.2 73.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 4.0% 1.5% 1.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142016 MATTHEW 10/01/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 30( 57) 30( 70) 31( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 34 78( 85) 94( 99) 87(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 118 114 114 114 115 115 115 94 97 95 103 102 100 98 93 86 18HR AGO 125 124 120 120 120 121 121 121 100 103 101 109 108 106 104 99 92 12HR AGO 125 122 121 121 121 122 122 122 101 104 102 110 109 107 105 100 93 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 115 116 116 116 95 98 96 104 103 101 99 94 87 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 107 107 107 86 89 87 95 94 92 90 85 78 IN 6HR 125 118 109 103 100 100 100 100 79 82 80 88 87 85 83 78 71 IN 12HR 125 118 114 105 99 95 95 95 74 77 75 83 82 80 78 73 66