* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ULIKA EP192016 09/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 35 31 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 39 35 31 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 38 33 30 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 19 24 28 31 41 48 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 1 2 0 -3 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 247 254 255 256 262 267 280 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 137 133 129 130 131 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 40 40 42 45 45 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 0 1 1 6 -2 -1 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 21 17 10 9 -12 -2 4 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 4 5 5 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1752 1716 1681 1641 1602 1499 1362 1183 1017 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.8 139.0 139.2 139.5 139.8 140.7 142.0 143.7 145.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 18 17 14 9 4 4 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -20. -29. -35. -39. -42. -44. -44. -45. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -18. -24. -30. -38. -45. -49. -53. -55. -57. -56. -55. -57. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 138.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.1 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192016 ULIKA 09/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##