* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL132016 09/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 44 43 39 35 30 27 24 22 24 25 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 44 43 39 35 30 27 24 22 24 25 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 45 44 40 35 30 27 26 27 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 33 35 38 43 33 24 16 16 14 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 244 244 246 242 247 259 276 328 16 14 19 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 116 117 116 118 119 120 123 120 118 115 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 106 106 105 106 106 105 107 104 101 98 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -54.7 -54.2 -54.6 -55.5 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 47 44 40 36 32 31 34 40 45 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 15 13 10 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 32 23 14 -15 -46 -78 -115 -92 -59 -57 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 24 18 7 0 -14 -38 -16 -28 -1 0 47 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 21 17 15 12 13 7 9 11 9 0 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1756 1810 1867 1932 1996 2128 2257 2392 2366 2183 2033 1929 1831 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.8 25.1 26.4 28.0 30.0 31.9 33.6 35.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.8 34.4 35.0 35.6 36.3 37.6 38.8 40.0 40.3 39.9 39.2 38.2 37.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 5 2 2 6 6 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -22. -23. -26. -25. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -23. -21. -20. -20. -19. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.7 33.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132016 LISA 09/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.31 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 326.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 6.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 2.7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132016 LISA 09/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 45 44 43 39 35 30 27 24 22 24 25 25 26 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 41 37 33 28 25 22 20 22 23 23 24 25 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 35 31 26 23 20 18 20 21 21 22 23 23 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 30 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT