* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 41 44 50 56 63 69 75 78 80 82 84 94 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 41 44 50 56 63 69 75 78 80 82 84 94 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 36 38 41 45 52 62 74 84 90 92 92 94 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 6 7 8 4 3 2 1 2 5 8 6 13 24 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 0 1 -3 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 -5 -1 -4 0 11 SHEAR DIR 214 228 240 234 191 203 266 139 10 227 304 253 290 269 259 210 198 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.3 26.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 139 142 143 144 150 163 162 163 159 158 157 149 143 125 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 132 135 136 136 142 152 147 144 136 134 133 129 128 112 102 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 46 47 49 52 54 58 59 61 59 60 60 61 63 61 59 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 16 27 850 MB ENV VOR 53 44 46 46 43 38 34 36 25 15 -5 -11 -8 -10 54 102 138 200 MB DIV 0 20 17 11 7 3 12 33 10 38 22 58 34 17 34 86 121 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 1 1 3 3 1 0 -10 -50 -72 LAND (KM) 1559 1528 1453 1371 1299 1115 907 789 793 888 1010 1126 1251 1353 1386 1362 1250 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.4 20.4 21.7 23.2 24.7 26.2 27.5 28.7 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.7 49.0 50.3 51.5 52.8 55.3 57.8 60.2 62.2 63.7 64.6 64.8 64.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 12 12 13 14 13 11 9 7 6 7 11 16 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 33 34 44 28 29 54 55 58 39 38 35 31 27 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -9. -6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 21. 28. 34. 40. 43. 45. 47. 49. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.3 47.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.64 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.68 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.7% 9.1% 7.4% 6.2% 10.3% 12.9% 27.3% Logistic: 1.6% 5.0% 3.7% 2.6% 0.6% 5.3% 6.7% 29.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 2.2% 6.4% 4.4% 3.4% 2.3% 5.3% 6.6% 19.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/19/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 38 41 44 50 56 63 69 75 78 80 82 84 94 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 40 43 49 55 62 68 74 77 79 81 83 93 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 39 45 51 58 64 70 73 75 77 79 89 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 32 38 44 51 57 63 66 68 70 72 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT