* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARL AL122016 09/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 40 40 43 46 49 53 58 64 69 73 77 79 82 85 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 40 40 43 46 49 53 58 64 69 73 77 79 82 85 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 39 40 42 45 50 55 62 70 80 87 91 92 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 12 9 4 1 4 2 4 1 1 3 10 12 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 0 6 6 6 3 -1 0 3 2 0 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 262 255 252 256 257 289 316 241 201 269 360 330 273 284 288 304 321 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.6 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 133 133 138 142 146 146 161 166 166 166 163 162 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 123 127 127 132 137 140 139 152 155 150 148 142 136 134 133 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 47 45 50 53 56 57 59 60 60 61 58 61 61 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 12 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 73 78 73 69 63 65 52 52 49 35 36 29 14 6 15 -1 9 200 MB DIV -15 -15 -3 15 12 -4 31 8 2 9 28 11 27 6 43 14 37 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 1 -1 -3 0 -5 0 1 5 8 7 5 LAND (KM) 2005 1913 1818 1721 1632 1539 1464 1315 1121 912 782 766 834 962 1045 1121 1141 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.7 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.7 21.8 23.0 24.3 25.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.8 41.0 42.3 43.6 45.0 47.5 50.1 52.8 55.3 57.8 60.1 62.0 63.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 8 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 13 23 22 30 36 37 29 37 56 45 64 42 41 40 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. 15. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -14. -16. -15. -15. -13. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 24. 29. 33. 37. 39. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.1 39.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.59 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.54 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.40 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 11.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 11.0% 19.3% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1.3% 1.6% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.3% 2.9% 0.2% 0.0% 3.4% 4.2% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122016 KARL 09/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122016 KARL 09/17/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 40 40 43 46 49 53 58 64 69 73 77 79 82 85 18HR AGO 40 39 38 39 39 42 45 48 52 57 63 68 72 76 78 81 84 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 40 43 46 50 55 61 66 70 74 76 79 82 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 33 36 39 43 48 54 59 63 67 69 72 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT