* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162016 09/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 49 56 63 74 82 86 85 84 77 73 75 73 71 70 66 V (KT) LAND 35 41 49 56 63 74 82 86 85 84 77 73 75 73 71 70 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 41 47 53 61 73 81 83 81 78 71 68 68 66 62 59 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 4 2 4 3 4 2 1 6 14 7 3 1 1 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 4 7 8 11 SHEAR DIR 70 61 64 121 197 291 181 245 160 68 94 104 114 6 134 249 267 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.7 26.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 159 155 150 143 140 138 135 132 130 131 128 124 120 124 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 58 56 57 54 53 48 41 33 32 28 27 28 33 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 20 21 23 23 24 22 21 23 22 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 9 3 7 7 1 -9 -21 -33 -21 -10 12 32 28 26 30 30 29 200 MB DIV 33 38 41 31 24 41 59 7 0 7 20 -46 -17 -13 -1 -20 -11 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -4 0 1 0 0 1 3 7 9 10 15 23 LAND (KM) 1093 1094 1107 1129 1132 1123 1106 1087 1108 1174 1273 1396 1555 1754 1918 2040 2017 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.4 117.3 118.1 118.9 119.9 120.4 120.7 121.2 122.1 123.5 125.2 127.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 5 8 9 11 11 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 31 22 17 19 20 14 8 4 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 13. 14. 16. 12. 10. 11. 9. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 21. 28. 40. 47. 51. 50. 49. 42. 38. 40. 38. 36. 35. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.5 115.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 14.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.85 10.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 -9.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.57 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 56% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.0% 49.7% 42.5% 32.2% 23.1% 41.5% 55.6% 53.5% Logistic: 29.2% 58.0% 48.5% 38.7% 32.8% 40.5% 36.3% 13.5% Bayesian: 3.0% 44.3% 11.8% 3.7% 8.0% 11.2% 2.5% 0.1% Consensus: 16.7% 50.7% 34.2% 24.9% 21.3% 31.1% 31.4% 22.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162016 ORLENE 09/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##