* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 58 57 55 49 44 40 33 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 58 57 55 49 44 40 33 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 61 60 58 55 49 45 45 46 45 44 43 40 38 38 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 43 51 55 54 50 38 25 16 9 10 7 12 16 19 8 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -3 -1 -6 -5 -2 -5 -4 -4 -2 -1 -2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 238 237 235 233 226 231 216 247 226 320 13 17 32 35 45 307 246 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.3 27.3 26.3 24.9 23.6 23.7 24.0 24.4 23.5 23.5 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 147 146 147 146 136 124 113 101 93 94 96 99 94 94 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 118 114 114 112 105 97 90 83 78 79 80 83 80 80 77 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.6 -52.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 1 1 2 0 2 2 5 3 6 5 7 6 7 3 2 700-500 MB RH 47 50 53 54 53 51 52 49 47 48 49 50 50 51 48 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 28 30 34 31 28 25 22 18 17 15 13 11 11 16 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -16 -21 -8 -1 11 13 6 9 -25 -54 -59 -55 -70 -62 -14 -6 200 MB DIV 71 48 43 39 44 8 32 23 -6 -22 -35 -14 -28 -14 31 9 -11 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 4 1 8 12 26 26 -22 LAND (KM) 149 242 298 309 325 291 267 244 221 201 185 224 309 255 324 379 441 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.3 37.6 38.1 38.4 38.8 39.2 39.7 40.1 40.4 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.1 73.1 72.2 71.8 71.5 71.5 71.6 71.4 70.9 70.3 69.3 67.9 66.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 33 32 41 52 39 20 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -17. -20. -20. -19. -17. -17. -17. -19. -19. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 2. -1. -6. -11. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -26. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -16. -20. -27. -36. -41. -48. -54. -59. -57. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.0 74.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 60.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 59 58 57 55 49 44 40 33 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 56 54 48 43 39 32 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 52 46 41 37 30 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 47 41 36 32 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT