* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 09/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 71 68 63 51 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 75 71 68 63 51 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 74 69 65 60 50 40 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 17 18 20 13 32 22 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 9 13 12 17 -2 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 245 239 268 300 311 332 335 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.1 25.0 24.8 24.5 23.8 23.0 22.1 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 118 108 106 103 98 93 88 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 104 95 93 90 85 81 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 40 41 41 41 42 49 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 28 27 22 14 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -51 -64 -57 -66 -85 -90 -75 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 20 5 2 -21 -73 -25 -21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 18 16 11 22 -2 28 40 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1350 1396 1465 1568 1683 1906 1714 1451 1205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.1 37.7 38.1 38.5 39.0 40.0 41.4 42.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.5 42.3 40.1 37.9 35.8 32.2 29.3 26.6 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 17 16 13 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -23. -31. -36. -39. -43. -46. -49. -51. -53. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -18. -27. -38. -40. -42. -43. -43. -41. -40. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -17. -29. -47. -64. -77. -82. -85. -87. -89. -89. -88. -87. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 36.4 44.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 722.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 09/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 09/01/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 75 71 68 63 51 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 75 72 67 55 37 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 73 68 56 38 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 53 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT