* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 54 47 42 42 43 45 45 45 45 45 46 47 48 48 48 V (KT) LAND 70 60 54 47 42 42 43 45 45 45 45 45 46 47 48 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 70 61 54 49 45 42 42 44 47 50 53 56 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 16 19 21 16 18 14 14 15 15 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 9 10 2 2 2 -4 0 0 -5 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 263 250 258 266 261 235 278 278 303 292 304 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 139 141 143 146 146 152 150 148 150 150 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 35 36 35 35 37 34 34 34 35 33 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 14 16 12 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 22 23 24 44 52 40 36 26 6 -9 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 5 17 -1 -6 16 1 0 -35 -10 0 -10 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 5 -2 0 -2 -3 -7 -7 -4 -2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 247 145 77 38 123 335 390 553 761 984 1194 1397 1596 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.7 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.5 153.6 154.7 155.8 156.9 159.0 161.5 164.3 166.8 169.2 171.4 173.5 175.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 13 11 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 16 21 26 32 41 25 60 38 21 18 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -4. -6. -7. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -16. -23. -27. -28. -27. -25. -25. -25. -25. -25. -24. -23. -22. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.0 152.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 720.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##