* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 60 70 75 74 77 71 66 58 52 50 48 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 38 51 56 55 58 52 47 39 33 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 44 35 44 49 51 50 45 41 40 40 41 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 13 10 11 15 29 31 39 32 22 20 22 11 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -1 0 -3 -3 3 3 2 -6 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 318 318 299 290 275 230 247 230 225 228 210 240 233 221 218 229 16 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 29.1 28.0 26.9 25.2 22.5 20.5 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 167 167 170 173 174 154 151 148 153 135 120 104 86 77 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 148 147 147 150 157 159 137 131 124 124 108 96 84 73 67 65 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -51.8 -52.9 -53.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 10 5 6 3 4 2 2 2 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 68 67 66 62 62 65 62 52 43 49 55 58 63 54 48 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 19 20 24 27 27 32 28 25 21 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 78 72 56 33 39 47 20 32 5 -29 -10 -25 -5 -26 -15 -36 -42 200 MB DIV 43 44 27 31 43 56 56 70 47 40 51 28 28 28 9 -1 -33 700-850 TADV 5 5 4 9 13 5 7 -7 0 0 -3 12 -4 2 -9 -3 2 LAND (KM) 333 407 390 349 274 76 -36 71 110 328 460 402 328 262 217 203 205 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.3 25.9 26.7 27.4 29.1 31.0 32.9 34.6 36.0 37.2 38.2 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 88.0 87.7 87.4 86.8 86.3 84.6 81.9 78.6 75.2 72.1 69.9 68.7 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 9 10 13 16 17 16 12 9 6 4 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 47 41 37 41 46 26 28 22 33 35 45 12 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 32. 30. 28. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 1. -4. -10. -13. -16. -20. -21. -19. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 12. 13. 19. 12. 7. 1. -3. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 40. 45. 44. 47. 41. 36. 28. 22. 20. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.6 88.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.69 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.89 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.15 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.83 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 17.2% 11.3% 8.8% 8.0% 11.8% 13.9% 18.8% Logistic: 9.0% 29.2% 21.6% 19.9% 6.2% 29.2% 27.0% 2.8% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 15.5% 11.1% 9.6% 4.8% 13.7% 13.6% 7.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/31/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 40 44 52 38 51 56 55 58 52 47 39 33 31 29 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 48 34 47 52 51 54 48 43 35 29 27 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 41 27 40 45 44 47 41 36 28 22 20 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 18 31 36 35 38 32 27 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT