* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 42 39 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 42 39 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 35 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 20 27 36 51 69 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -2 -4 -1 -2 -9 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 268 278 273 265 263 256 260 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.2 29.0 27.5 26.4 21.0 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 147 155 153 134 123 89 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 120 128 129 118 111 82 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 4 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 54 56 60 66 71 67 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -48 -44 -35 -17 25 53 32 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -7 -19 -4 19 37 59 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 6 9 15 28 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 132 127 111 179 269 381 355 384 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 34.7 35.1 35.7 36.3 38.2 40.6 43.4 46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.2 75.0 74.7 73.7 72.8 69.4 63.7 56.7 49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 10 13 21 27 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 35 29 34 34 7 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -8. -22. -31. -40. -48. -56. -66. -73. -76. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 9. -1. -7. -15. -21. -27. -34. -40. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.2 75.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.54 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.61 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.64 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.79 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.77 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.2% 9.0% 7.4% 6.2% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 10.8% 9.9% 3.7% 0.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 8.0% 6.3% 3.7% 2.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 37 41 42 39 29 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 38 39 36 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 35 32 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 27 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT