* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 98 99 98 96 95 90 86 82 69 63 55 44 39 42 29 V (KT) LAND 100 99 98 99 98 96 95 90 86 82 69 63 55 44 39 42 29 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 96 95 95 94 93 87 80 69 60 53 46 40 38 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 9 13 17 19 24 19 17 15 19 18 21 5 35 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 4 2 -1 0 1 3 6 11 10 5 -1 -2 4 17 7 SHEAR DIR 5 350 349 317 305 283 259 246 235 276 324 350 2 25 146 199 204 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.1 26.1 24.7 24.8 23.8 23.2 22.6 21.7 20.3 19.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 147 148 143 134 127 117 104 105 97 93 90 86 81 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 122 122 124 122 116 110 101 91 90 83 80 78 76 73 70 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.7 -53.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.8 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 39 39 37 38 38 36 37 38 41 39 37 35 32 28 32 30 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 28 27 29 32 31 31 32 27 25 22 17 16 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -50 -55 -51 -46 -18 6 -8 -24 -43 -72 -70 -116 -110 -77 -41 -38 200 MB DIV -16 0 1 -2 10 36 42 36 22 -32 -47 -65 -45 0 18 40 25 700-850 TADV 6 10 7 5 9 2 8 20 25 16 10 7 6 14 -16 3 -101 LAND (KM) 1671 1653 1629 1612 1598 1539 1434 1376 1422 1567 1753 1936 1805 1639 1436 1239 1063 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.1 31.4 31.8 32.1 32.9 34.2 35.6 36.7 37.5 38.0 38.3 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.4 55.1 54.9 54.3 53.6 51.6 48.9 45.8 42.4 38.7 35.3 32.4 30.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 7 8 11 14 15 15 14 13 10 9 10 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 28 24 22 14 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -20. -28. -36. -43. -48. -54. -60. -64. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. -3. -6. -11. -17. -19. -15. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -18. -31. -37. -45. -56. -61. -58. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.8 55.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1007.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 21( 51) 19( 61) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 99 98 99 98 96 95 90 86 82 69 63 55 44 39 42 29 18HR AGO 100 99 98 99 98 96 95 90 86 82 69 63 55 44 39 42 29 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 96 94 93 88 84 80 67 61 53 42 37 40 27 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 87 86 81 77 73 60 54 46 35 30 33 20 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 78 73 69 65 52 46 38 27 22 25 DIS IN 6HR 100 99 90 84 81 79 78 73 69 65 52 46 38 27 22 25 DIS IN 12HR 100 99 98 89 83 79 78 73 69 65 52 46 38 27 22 25 DIS