* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 85 88 89 90 91 91 92 93 93 89 84 79 73 63 52 V (KT) LAND 75 81 85 88 89 90 91 91 92 93 93 89 84 79 73 63 52 V (KT) LGEM 75 82 87 90 91 91 90 90 90 90 89 83 76 66 57 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 7 12 9 11 15 18 19 20 17 15 13 18 28 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 1 3 2 6 2 -1 2 2 4 3 8 6 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 277 344 16 357 341 352 327 319 295 289 265 263 264 288 302 309 321 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.6 27.1 25.5 23.5 21.8 20.2 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 149 150 151 150 146 142 146 127 112 98 90 84 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 124 122 121 122 123 123 121 119 125 110 97 87 81 77 74 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.5 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 43 41 45 44 40 43 42 45 44 42 39 41 42 42 45 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 27 29 32 34 34 32 31 29 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -63 -47 -46 -45 -35 -54 -33 -17 15 10 -1 -30 -74 -102 -103 -109 200 MB DIV -3 -8 -8 4 8 -18 1 13 21 32 6 -3 -6 -8 -44 -20 -35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 5 10 8 3 12 14 34 24 22 24 36 36 LAND (KM) 1691 1702 1715 1726 1705 1668 1634 1616 1558 1493 1402 1351 1360 1477 1702 1506 1096 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.6 31.0 31.5 32.0 32.7 33.4 34.6 36.0 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.1 54.5 54.8 55.0 55.1 55.0 54.4 53.4 52.2 50.6 48.4 45.4 41.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 2 3 4 6 7 9 13 16 17 19 22 23 22 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 27 29 31 32 28 25 21 13 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -18. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 14. 12. 8. 6. 2. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 18. 18. 14. 9. 4. -2. -12. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.2 54.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.69 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.75 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.13 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 687.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 18.0% 17.6% 13.9% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.8% 33.3% 31.3% 21.2% 10.0% 16.4% 9.1% 4.3% Bayesian: 7.0% 15.2% 11.1% 3.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 13.6% 22.2% 20.0% 12.7% 6.7% 6.0% 3.1% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/28/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 11( 24) 12( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 85 88 89 90 91 91 92 93 93 89 84 79 73 63 52 18HR AGO 75 74 78 81 82 83 84 84 85 86 86 82 77 72 66 56 45 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 75 76 77 77 78 79 79 75 70 65 59 49 38 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 67 68 68 69 70 70 66 61 56 50 40 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 85 76 70 66 67 67 68 69 69 65 60 55 49 39 28