* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 68 75 84 87 90 86 88 87 86 82 84 84 86 84 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 68 75 84 87 90 86 88 87 86 82 84 84 86 84 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 61 66 74 81 87 92 96 99 93 88 87 87 85 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 13 11 4 2 5 4 8 9 10 12 9 12 7 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 1 1 -1 -2 -4 1 1 -3 -3 -2 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 295 317 325 313 294 287 109 90 87 58 65 19 17 30 29 360 24 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.1 27.5 27.3 26.6 27.0 27.5 27.5 26.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 150 148 143 143 143 136 140 138 130 134 138 138 129 125 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.5 -51.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 56 55 55 54 51 46 43 41 43 44 53 57 61 63 67 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 21 23 24 25 27 25 28 29 30 28 30 30 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 2 8 9 9 6 20 46 70 74 58 35 27 28 40 29 13 6 200 MB DIV 55 66 47 25 30 43 16 33 12 -27 -14 -13 21 31 22 14 24 700-850 TADV 7 5 1 4 4 2 4 0 5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 760 769 784 819 859 949 1076 1247 1455 1649 1856 2068 2164 1954 1786 1650 1515 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.1 114.7 115.4 116.1 117.7 119.6 121.8 124.3 127.0 129.6 132.1 134.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 15 13 9 12 12 5 12 8 2 9 20 14 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 10. 14. 15. 15. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 34. 37. 40. 36. 38. 37. 36. 32. 34. 34. 36. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.9 113.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 10.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.37 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 -7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 7.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.4% 48.1% 37.8% 25.3% 14.9% 40.7% 41.4% 0.0% Logistic: 17.4% 27.6% 22.8% 15.0% 7.9% 17.8% 4.7% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.0% 10.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.9% 28.8% 21.2% 13.9% 7.7% 19.6% 15.4% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##