* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 36 34 34 35 38 43 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 36 34 34 35 38 43 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 36 34 31 29 29 30 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 31 29 26 26 22 17 10 12 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 7 3 2 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 276 280 282 284 290 313 349 335 339 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.5 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 145 143 150 151 156 157 155 156 162 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 135 133 139 139 142 140 137 137 140 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 39 41 44 45 55 61 64 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 7 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -45 -42 -36 -43 -45 -25 -18 -13 -8 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -20 -24 -32 -17 -5 6 5 13 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 17 12 6 3 4 0 0 -6 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1585 1472 1364 1259 1163 1015 939 918 986 1065 1072 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.5 25.3 26.1 27.2 28.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.0 52.3 53.5 54.8 56.1 58.5 60.6 62.5 64.1 65.5 66.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 27 27 25 21 25 36 46 33 41 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. 3. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 51.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/21/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 37 36 34 34 35 38 43 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 36 34 34 35 38 43 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 32 32 33 36 41 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 27 27 28 31 36 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT