* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 35 35 36 33 32 31 33 35 40 45 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 35 35 36 33 32 31 33 35 40 45 45 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 29 27 24 22 21 21 22 24 26 30 34 38 Storm Type TROP N/A N/A TROP N/A TROP TROP TROP N/A TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 N/A N/A 24 N/A 23 28 26 N/A 23 18 19 12 15 20 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 N/A N/A 2 N/A 9 3 7 N/A 9 1 0 -6 -5 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 230 N/A N/A 261 N/A 277 289 306 N/A 341 16 17 360 279 256 251 252 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 132 132 134 139 140 147 151 152 155 155 151 153 153 151 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 122 124 124 126 129 130 134 135 133 134 132 127 128 125 122 115 200 MB T (C) -53.6 N/A N/A -53.7 N/A -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 N/A -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 N/A N/A -0.1 N/A 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 N/A N/A 9 N/A 10 11 11 N/A 11 11 10 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 N/A N/A 39 N/A 37 40 44 N/A 55 61 63 65 61 55 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 LOST LOST 11 LOST 9 8 6 LOST 4 4 3 4 5 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 30 N/A N/A 0 N/A -36 -37 -64 N/A -75 -55 -47 -41 -29 -20 -9 -19 200 MB DIV 5 N/A N/A -9 N/A -12 -44 -24 N/A -1 3 19 17 16 -6 0 -33 700-850 TADV 7 N/A N/A 14 N/A 19 8 13 N/A 6 7 2 0 1 -3 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1699 1693 1692 1691 1629 1485 1293 1142 1059 1046 1080 1160 1256 1375 1356 1279 1208 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.5 22.7 23.8 24.9 25.9 26.9 28.0 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.1 47.2 48.3 49.5 51.9 54.2 56.4 58.3 59.7 60.7 61.3 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 12 15 23 23 19 22 30 40 30 23 24 24 23 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 26. 28. 28. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -16. -15. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 5. 10. 10. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.4 45.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 999.9 41.0 to 7.4 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9999.0 -28.0 to 171.0 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9999.0 814.0 to -65.0 999.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/20/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 35 35 36 33 32 31 33 35 40 45 45 46 47 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 34 34 35 32 31 30 32 34 39 44 44 45 46 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 31 32 29 28 27 29 31 36 41 41 42 43 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 25 22 21 20 22 24 29 34 34 35 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT