* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062016 08/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 39 42 44 46 51 51 53 52 54 54 57 58 60 64 66 V (KT) LAND 35 38 39 42 44 46 51 51 53 52 54 54 57 58 60 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 48 51 50 49 47 46 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 6 5 9 11 15 21 20 19 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 4 5 4 8 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 115 143 161 181 215 226 245 251 257 263 259 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.0 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 122 121 118 120 124 124 130 130 133 134 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 117 115 112 113 115 115 121 121 121 121 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 60 59 55 49 41 39 39 40 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 13 14 12 12 10 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 60 43 28 27 32 29 23 17 3 -16 -35 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -5 2 2 10 20 7 1 9 9 -4 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 2 8 9 12 15 17 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1891 1940 1918 1896 1880 1875 1835 1802 1792 1801 1711 1570 1437 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 17.3 18.1 18.9 19.8 21.0 22.1 23.1 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.7 37.6 38.4 39.2 40.7 42.3 44.0 45.9 47.9 49.8 51.5 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 8 7 3 6 13 10 9 10 19 16 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -8. -9. -12. -12. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 16. 16. 18. 17. 19. 19. 22. 23. 25. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.6 35.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 SIX 08/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.85 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.55 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.53 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.9% 11.5% 9.0% 7.8% 11.1% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 25.6% 15.6% 5.2% 2.9% 11.5% 8.9% 2.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 21.1% 5.7% 0.2% 0.4% 3.5% 4.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 21.2% 10.9% 4.8% 3.7% 8.7% 8.8% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 SIX 08/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 SIX 08/17/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 39 42 44 46 51 51 53 52 54 54 57 58 60 64 66 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 40 42 47 47 49 48 50 50 53 54 56 60 62 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 38 43 43 45 44 46 46 49 50 52 56 58 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 34 34 36 35 37 37 40 41 43 47 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT