* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 74 75 74 69 68 65 64 63 63 64 67 71 72 74 73 V (KT) LAND 70 53 42 35 32 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 53 41 35 32 35 34 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 17 14 10 13 13 15 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -2 -5 -3 -5 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 347 4 340 334 5 21 36 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 30.1 29.7 29.0 29.0 29.0 27.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 172 164 152 151 151 133 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 154 166 157 143 141 140 122 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 75 77 79 80 78 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 17 15 15 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 33 34 33 33 47 49 45 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 76 57 41 35 44 40 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -1 3 -5 -4 -6 -5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -11 -127 -116 -67 -41 31 -12 -123 -232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.4 90.5 91.6 92.6 94.5 96.1 97.7 99.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 12 5 18 21 17 15 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -20. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 5. 4. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. 1. 3. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.4 88.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 11.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.71 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.12 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.93 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.44 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.91 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 49.1% 37.3% 26.4% 24.1% 27.9% 16.3% 20.7% Logistic: 31.8% 69.4% 57.2% 57.6% 50.4% 48.4% 43.5% 39.5% Bayesian: 17.6% 63.2% 30.5% 12.1% 12.4% 22.5% 3.4% 65.0% Consensus: 24.6% 60.6% 41.7% 32.0% 29.0% 32.9% 21.1% 41.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/04/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 53 42 35 32 32 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 58 51 48 48 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 12HR AGO 70 67 66 59 56 56 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 57 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT