* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 40 42 42 42 42 40 36 35 33 31 30 29 29 28 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 40 42 42 42 42 40 36 35 33 31 30 29 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 39 36 33 30 27 26 25 24 24 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 10 10 11 11 14 8 12 17 21 19 20 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 -5 -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 274 275 271 261 237 205 242 242 244 237 243 255 280 290 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.1 25.1 24.9 23.8 24.2 24.1 25.1 25.2 25.7 25.7 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 139 136 115 114 102 106 105 115 117 122 123 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 62 60 59 57 55 52 48 41 39 35 31 30 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 -10 -18 -13 -19 -7 -16 -8 -19 -16 -23 -22 -31 -37 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 44 39 38 33 4 15 2 -16 4 -2 -6 -27 -30 -42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -2 -4 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -6 -4 -10 -3 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1444 1493 1550 1600 1649 1783 1958 2049 1765 1486 1212 936 649 345 105 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.0 19.1 20.2 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.7 22.9 22.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.5 124.6 125.8 127.1 129.7 132.4 135.2 138.0 140.8 143.6 146.5 149.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 14 13 14 14 13 13 13 14 15 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 10 15 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 122.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.70 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.1 to 8.6 0.62 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 22.5% 18.3% 14.7% 10.0% 18.6% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 9.6% 4.3% 2.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 11.0% 7.6% 5.7% 4.0% 6.6% 5.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##