* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 59 58 57 55 51 45 38 33 27 24 20 19 19 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 59 59 58 57 55 51 45 38 33 27 24 20 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 56 56 53 48 43 38 32 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 12 13 10 9 8 13 13 15 16 17 16 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 2 3 0 2 2 0 2 0 0 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 34 10 28 47 60 63 89 111 132 119 113 105 90 93 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.8 26.1 25.4 24.9 24.1 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 146 142 141 137 131 123 116 111 102 100 100 99 94 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 65 63 63 66 61 61 58 56 52 51 49 52 50 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 17 17 17 17 18 17 16 15 13 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -40 -47 -49 -49 -51 -45 -47 -42 -49 -50 -39 -16 0 20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 -4 13 4 11 2 -3 -16 -20 -20 -10 -8 -15 -8 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -6 -4 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 0 1 2 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 379 398 426 463 484 523 603 706 785 850 939 1035 1140 1263 1382 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.0 23.1 23.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.7 113.3 113.9 114.4 115.6 116.9 118.4 119.9 121.3 122.7 123.9 125.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 9 6 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -4. -10. -17. -22. -28. -31. -35. -36. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.1 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.58 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.39 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.62 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 23.2% 19.0% 15.2% 10.9% 18.6% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 8.6% 6.7% 5.2% 3.7% 6.3% 4.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##