* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 47 45 42 36 32 30 30 30 29 27 25 23 20 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 42 44 41 35 31 29 29 29 27 26 24 21 19 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 42 43 41 38 35 34 34 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 12 17 25 34 30 20 10 11 15 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 1 1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 261 255 239 239 236 239 242 247 257 240 255 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.2 26.6 26.3 25.7 25.6 25.5 24.0 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 133 133 135 129 126 121 120 119 103 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -56.0 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 33 34 36 37 40 41 43 41 38 36 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 11 10 9 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 -3 1 4 7 16 11 -5 -33 -57 -53 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -20 -4 2 6 6 -7 -8 -37 -11 12 21 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 3 7 6 9 9 5 9 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 248 166 85 12 -22 12 7 75 262 506 758 1004 1259 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.9 24.3 26.1 28.0 29.9 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.6 153.4 154.1 154.7 155.3 156.6 157.9 159.4 160.8 162.3 163.7 165.0 166.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 11 11 10 12 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -20. -20. -20. -21. -23. -25. -27. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.7 152.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##