* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 59 57 51 44 37 29 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 60 59 57 51 44 37 29 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 59 57 53 46 38 31 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 1 1 3 8 13 10 18 16 24 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 7 10 9 5 1 0 2 -1 5 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 170 201 211 97 240 289 286 242 243 237 236 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.1 25.4 25.6 24.3 22.8 22.8 22.6 22.9 22.3 21.9 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 125 118 120 107 91 91 89 92 86 81 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 59 58 56 55 52 48 49 46 47 42 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 25 25 22 20 18 15 14 12 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 39 34 40 42 28 11 -9 -29 -44 -74 -98 -102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 16 -4 -14 -12 0 -13 -15 12 5 25 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 20 13 11 6 11 5 10 11 19 20 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1055 1142 1226 1292 1366 1530 1695 1780 1811 1840 1812 1827 1833 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.5 21.7 23.0 24.6 26.4 28.3 30.0 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.4 121.6 122.8 124.0 125.2 127.8 130.4 132.9 135.1 137.0 138.8 140.3 141.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 13 12 13 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -18. -23. -26. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. -18. -21. -24. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -31. -34. -39. -46. -57. -57. -59. -62. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.0 120.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 369.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 4.7% 3.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 8.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##