* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 63 70 73 75 76 73 70 66 61 54 49 44 40 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 63 70 73 75 76 73 70 66 61 54 49 44 40 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 58 60 62 62 62 61 57 53 48 43 37 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 10 15 13 6 2 3 5 4 1 6 15 16 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 5 1 -2 1 5 3 5 0 3 1 0 2 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 8 10 2 329 326 310 325 12 148 76 119 107 271 279 271 251 233 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.1 27.1 26.5 26.7 25.9 25.6 24.7 23.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 147 144 134 135 129 131 123 120 111 100 94 94 94 91 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 75 76 76 76 76 70 66 63 61 59 58 58 56 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 27 27 30 31 32 33 32 31 28 27 23 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 -1 -2 -3 3 8 28 42 43 71 59 45 9 -20 -39 -42 200 MB DIV 115 88 64 61 60 54 67 50 33 0 4 -7 -2 -16 8 14 39 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 -3 -3 8 13 7 7 3 12 6 17 21 33 LAND (KM) 705 744 737 740 751 808 914 1016 1171 1331 1473 1629 1778 1840 1872 1861 1737 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.9 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.5 112.2 113.0 113.7 115.3 117.1 119.1 121.3 123.6 126.0 128.5 130.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 28 21 15 4 5 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 11. 9. 6. 3. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 20. 23. 25. 26. 23. 20. 16. 11. 4. -1. -6. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.1 110.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.65 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.21 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 23.8% 20.0% 16.4% 11.8% 22.1% 16.3% 11.8% Logistic: 2.2% 6.4% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 1.7% 2.8% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.2% 4.8% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 5.7% 11.7% 8.3% 6.1% 4.1% 8.1% 6.5% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##