* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 79 73 69 61 56 49 44 37 34 30 27 26 25 25 26 V (KT) LAND 90 84 79 73 69 61 56 49 44 37 34 30 27 26 25 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 90 83 76 70 64 57 53 49 44 39 35 33 30 27 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 4 2 4 5 11 10 14 13 16 18 22 17 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 0 -3 5 1 6 0 2 1 2 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 204 152 166 180 159 218 229 245 251 248 259 250 246 251 251 264 240 SST (C) 25.4 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.3 25.4 25.1 24.9 25.6 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 111 110 106 117 114 113 120 125 125 126 129 132 134 134 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 54 53 52 52 49 52 48 48 45 41 38 38 42 46 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 24 22 22 21 21 20 20 18 17 15 13 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 73 69 66 76 86 76 93 72 82 68 61 50 40 26 29 21 14 200 MB DIV -9 0 -3 14 30 25 10 -12 0 0 -26 -16 -43 -17 -24 -4 20 700-850 TADV -1 0 5 5 1 1 4 2 7 2 -1 0 -5 -2 -2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1573 1634 1698 1773 1850 2005 2149 1894 1653 1413 1163 918 680 471 322 228 279 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.2 18.6 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.2 128.1 129.1 130.1 132.1 134.3 136.7 139.0 141.3 143.7 146.1 148.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 10 7 10 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -26. -30. -33. -36. -38. -40. -41. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -7. -11. -12. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -21. -29. -34. -41. -46. -53. -56. -60. -63. -64. -65. -65. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.1 126.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 28.1 to 8.6 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 615.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##