* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 87 95 100 106 104 97 87 74 65 57 52 46 45 46 46 V (KT) LAND 70 78 87 95 100 106 104 97 87 74 65 57 52 46 45 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 70 78 85 90 93 94 91 85 77 66 57 51 46 43 42 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 4 10 11 3 2 2 4 6 7 8 8 8 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -5 -4 -1 -2 0 2 -1 0 -3 0 -3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 68 105 113 47 30 39 52 78 193 199 252 279 292 310 306 284 256 SST (C) 27.3 27.9 27.8 26.9 26.3 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.0 23.6 24.5 24.7 24.6 25.1 25.5 25.8 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 144 143 133 127 128 125 124 113 98 108 110 110 115 119 121 122 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 70 71 71 70 69 68 64 60 57 51 49 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 34 35 37 37 36 35 33 31 30 29 27 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 59 66 76 72 72 77 77 68 59 57 44 51 48 57 59 62 72 200 MB DIV 52 57 50 38 47 42 30 29 -6 21 -7 5 -7 -11 13 21 38 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -4 -7 -2 -2 0 2 10 14 16 12 13 7 7 9 LAND (KM) 1489 1568 1653 1735 1820 1936 2014 2086 2181 1998 1798 1590 1355 1081 829 598 383 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.6 20.3 20.8 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.9 123.1 124.3 125.4 126.5 128.5 130.3 132.0 133.8 135.7 137.6 139.6 141.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 10 12 12 12 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 24 21 8 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 6. 4. 3. 2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 25. 30. 36. 34. 27. 17. 4. -5. -13. -18. -24. -25. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.9 121.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 10.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.45 6.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.81 10.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 -9.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 9.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 9.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.12 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 62.4% 59.8% 49.2% 40.8% 33.3% 25.9% 16.2% 0.0% Logistic: 54.0% 65.4% 44.2% 38.4% 30.5% 12.1% 3.6% 1.3% Bayesian: 37.9% 32.8% 14.5% 8.1% 8.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 51.4% 52.6% 36.0% 29.1% 24.0% 13.3% 6.6% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##