* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 44 54 65 78 88 96 102 103 98 89 78 70 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 44 54 65 78 88 96 102 103 98 89 78 70 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 48 59 72 86 96 95 85 72 59 48 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 5 6 6 9 5 3 5 11 8 16 20 25 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -5 -3 -4 -4 0 4 5 -2 -2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 140 118 112 106 102 79 69 54 15 116 62 81 65 67 58 48 41 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.0 26.7 26.4 24.6 24.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 146 146 147 150 151 152 151 147 134 131 129 110 107 112 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -51.4 -51.7 -50.8 -51.6 -51.5 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 76 79 79 79 80 80 81 79 76 72 70 70 67 65 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 17 17 19 20 24 27 32 36 39 38 36 33 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 3 12 11 15 15 24 39 61 67 62 63 68 76 74 74 71 60 200 MB DIV 66 80 70 67 85 98 105 98 82 106 96 44 79 26 39 28 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -5 -2 -2 -4 -5 0 3 LAND (KM) 1050 1094 1142 1203 1228 1307 1416 1557 1659 1748 1826 1889 1950 2055 2153 1863 1578 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.4 15.4 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.3 113.0 113.9 114.7 116.5 118.3 120.2 122.1 124.0 125.8 127.5 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 21 19 19 24 39 35 30 34 24 4 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 17. 23. 29. 31. 27. 23. 17. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 24. 35. 48. 58. 66. 72. 73. 68. 59. 48. 40. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 111.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.69 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.87 -7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.19 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 25.0% 19.7% 15.7% 0.0% 23.6% 27.9% 52.6% Logistic: 2.5% 22.3% 10.4% 5.6% 1.3% 20.0% 47.1% 41.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 16.8% Consensus: 4.8% 17.2% 10.6% 7.3% 0.5% 14.8% 25.3% 37.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##