* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/07/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 106 102 96 84 69 57 43 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 108 106 102 96 84 69 57 43 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 106 100 93 87 72 59 47 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 8 10 12 14 14 15 19 25 33 40 37 42 38 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 7 5 2 5 10 11 14 14 9 5 1 6 2 4 5 SHEAR DIR 150 93 118 100 97 140 173 191 199 224 229 249 258 248 253 255 244 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.5 25.2 24.3 23.5 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 131 129 124 118 115 105 97 106 108 111 115 113 116 120 122 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 69 66 63 55 46 39 33 28 26 26 28 29 27 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 33 33 32 32 28 25 20 15 12 9 8 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 37 37 44 51 56 53 46 26 16 5 0 6 11 7 13 1 18 200 MB DIV 69 58 50 48 55 54 55 17 17 -5 -16 -9 -31 -11 -31 -23 0 700-850 TADV 3 4 6 5 5 10 23 16 16 6 10 6 1 -3 0 0 10 LAND (KM) 1735 1777 1813 1842 1874 1918 1970 2045 2048 1845 1634 1421 1219 1049 890 736 597 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 18.1 19.2 20.3 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.2 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.7 127.6 128.3 129.1 130.5 131.9 133.4 135.2 137.2 139.3 141.4 143.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -26. -35. -45. -52. -57. -62. -64. -66. -68. -71. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -11. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -17. -25. -29. -31. -30. -29. -27. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -14. -26. -41. -53. -67. -80. -89. -97.-103.-109.-114.-120.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 15.8 125.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/07/16 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 25 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##