* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 06/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 37 34 32 30 28 26 25 24 22 23 24 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 37 34 32 30 28 26 25 24 22 23 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 37 38 38 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 21 23 28 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 0 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 313 320 311 322 328 333 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.4 23.3 24.0 24.9 23.2 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 95 99 106 95 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 84 84 87 93 85 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.8 -58.1 -58.1 -57.9 -57.9 -58.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 53 50 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 8 18 12 9 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 0 -3 -16 -41 -16 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -9 -10 0 -7 -18 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 508 647 713 793 891 1070 1277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 35.8 35.7 35.6 35.4 34.9 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.1 68.6 67.0 65.3 63.6 59.9 56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -29. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -12. -11. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 35.9 70.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 06/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.28 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.47 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.22 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.68 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 8.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 06/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 06/04/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 38 37 34 32 30 28 26 25 24 22 23 24 26 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 35 32 30 28 26 24 23 22 20 21 22 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 31 28 26 24 22 20 19 18 16 17 18 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT