* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 84 82 80 71 67 63 59 63 65 64 67 64 62 57 50 V (KT) LAND 85 85 84 82 80 71 67 63 59 63 65 64 67 64 62 57 50 V (KT) LGEM 85 85 84 81 77 70 64 59 56 55 55 55 56 57 57 58 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 9 10 13 9 7 4 2 2 4 2 5 4 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 6 9 9 10 6 0 0 4 7 4 4 2 1 7 6 SHEAR DIR 185 166 175 171 166 174 196 230 198 170 145 225 93 153 176 148 166 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 149 150 149 149 149 150 151 153 156 156 155 152 156 158 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.5 -51.0 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 54 52 56 63 64 67 66 66 67 66 57 60 55 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 22 23 19 19 19 18 21 22 22 24 24 25 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 140 148 159 164 169 179 176 162 142 140 140 142 134 156 125 119 107 200 MB DIV 18 30 34 30 39 -3 -8 20 68 73 86 108 118 114 126 103 84 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 2133 2072 2009 1969 1929 1877 1856 1853 1873 1910 1970 2044 2132 2334 2270 2239 2204 LAT (DEG N) 5.7 5.1 4.6 4.3 3.9 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.0 171.3 171.5 171.9 172.3 173.3 174.5 175.7 177.0 178.2 179.5 180.9 182.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 13 7 2 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 79 86 90 88 89 83 75 72 75 87 102 99 91 85 94 100 111 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -2. 2. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -18. -26. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -14. -18. -22. -26. -22. -20. -21. -18. -21. -23. -28. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 5.7 171.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.33 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.34 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.05 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 537.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 -2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 86.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.92 3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 20.9% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.9% 34.0% 18.2% 13.6% 4.9% 2.9% 0.9% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.7% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 8.9% 20.2% 13.4% 4.8% 1.8% 7.2% 0.5% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##