* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/11/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 57 56 52 46 40 38 35 37 37 37 37 38 35 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 57 57 56 52 46 40 38 35 37 37 37 37 38 35 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 52 51 47 44 41 38 36 33 32 32 31 30 31 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 13 12 14 15 14 16 17 12 5 3 4 10 3 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 7 9 8 8 11 14 7 2 3 2 3 6 4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 207 223 224 225 220 205 193 171 197 229 240 248 284 252 173 152 151 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 144 146 148 150 153 153 154 153 152 152 157 155 158 156 157 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 48 47 45 45 45 45 41 47 50 55 55 58 60 54 65 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 20 21 22 20 18 17 16 15 17 16 17 17 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 94 100 105 116 134 143 166 171 173 174 162 147 141 162 119 112 105 200 MB DIV 52 56 43 27 -7 -5 29 4 13 36 48 52 46 62 114 125 129 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -6 -5 -7 -6 -3 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2003 1987 1971 1990 2010 2108 2085 1996 1932 1916 1894 1889 1881 2110 1799 1801 1815 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.2 8.1 7.7 7.3 6.3 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.6 172.3 171.9 171.7 171.4 171.5 171.9 172.6 173.3 174.0 174.9 175.9 176.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 13 2 9 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 47 52 57 73 84 86 87 83 79 79 82 90 89 93 98 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -12. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -7. -7. -5. -5. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -23. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -15. -17. -20. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 8.3 172.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.37 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.7% 40.9% 19.1% 18.0% 2.3% 5.5% 0.7% 5.3% Bayesian: 1.1% 9.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 7.3% 24.9% 6.9% 6.2% 0.8% 2.3% 0.4% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##