* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 55 54 52 49 47 41 40 38 35 34 34 35 35 32 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 55 54 52 49 47 41 40 38 35 34 34 35 35 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 56 54 52 48 46 45 45 46 45 44 42 39 35 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 18 13 14 11 10 8 9 9 9 10 9 13 9 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 7 8 5 0 1 -1 -3 0 4 5 20 27 23 21 22 SHEAR DIR 109 122 127 124 115 92 126 138 168 178 208 208 190 149 152 126 79 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 145 143 140 137 134 135 134 136 138 141 146 154 154 156 159 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 9 10 11 10 10 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 69 62 61 58 56 57 56 53 48 46 41 33 31 44 47 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 28 26 25 23 22 21 19 18 17 15 14 14 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 239 232 217 211 203 189 166 137 103 88 86 115 128 152 157 155 145 200 MB DIV 163 130 81 63 35 18 6 7 38 48 25 4 -10 -12 -4 10 34 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2069 2055 2043 2046 2051 2064 2072 2096 2127 2150 2182 2213 2245 2040 1992 1907 1830 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.5 8.2 7.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.9 172.4 172.8 173.2 173.6 174.1 174.4 174.7 175.0 175.1 175.2 175.3 175.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 1 1 2 2 10 13 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 64 57 47 41 35 29 26 25 25 28 34 41 47 87 100 113 121 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -16. -16. -18. -19. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -15. -17. -20. -21. -21. -20. -20. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 7.0 171.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.71 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% Logistic: 3.2% 17.3% 6.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##