* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 52 52 50 47 43 40 38 36 34 33 33 32 29 25 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 52 52 50 47 43 40 38 36 34 33 33 32 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 52 51 49 45 41 39 38 37 37 36 36 35 33 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 32 30 23 22 20 14 12 15 17 13 10 13 16 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 7 7 7 2 8 5 1 0 4 7 21 25 23 19 SHEAR DIR 96 93 108 115 115 97 92 107 111 137 154 176 175 123 116 115 124 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 151 149 147 147 146 146 146 147 147 151 153 153 153 156 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 73 68 69 65 64 64 62 55 51 44 47 49 53 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 30 29 28 25 22 20 19 18 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 231 240 249 242 240 220 179 141 118 96 93 113 121 137 144 154 153 200 MB DIV 235 214 200 161 90 60 28 21 17 66 54 44 9 3 8 8 12 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 3 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2044 2109 2145 2131 2118 2127 2141 2148 2164 2172 2181 2190 2199 2072 1955 1861 1821 LAT (DEG N) 4.9 5.5 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.2 171.5 171.8 172.2 172.5 172.9 173.1 173.2 173.3 173.3 173.3 173.3 173.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 10 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 90 83 77 72 65 65 64 65 68 69 71 74 76 89 95 103 110 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -8. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -19. -17. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -16. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 4.9 171.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 180.0 -30.0 to 145.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 13.3% 4.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##