* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 49 39 32 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 49 39 32 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 49 40 33 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 45 49 54 65 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 5 3 1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 244 240 236 240 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.4 26.8 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 139 138 131 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 50 46 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 9 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 5 16 19 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 51 60 79 70 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 28 17 13 6 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 269 204 154 86 0 -158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.4 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 108.4 108.1 107.8 107.6 107.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 24 16 10 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -13. -21. -29. -39. -52. -65. -75. -81. -86. -91. -96.-102.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -28. -33. -43. -53. -64. -75. -87. -96.-103.-108.-114.-121.-128.-133. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.8 108.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 69.6 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##